Modeling Shifts in Community Corrections Populations following the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from a Midwest Metropolitan Area

• In Event: Examining the Impact of COVID-19 on Community Corrections

Abstract

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in short-term strategy shifts by criminal justice agencies, including population reductions and early release in institutional settings and restricting in-person check-ins in community corrections, among many others. Years into the pandemic, the impact of these changes in practice to shifts in criminal justice populations is still coming into focus, as is how local criminal justice agencies navigated national-level trends. This paper models shifts in community corrections populations in a Midwest US metropolitan community corrections agency following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using monthly population data from early 2017 to mid-2021, we employ location-scale growth curve modeling to describe changes in probation, parole, and supervision absconder populations over this period. The results suggest that this agency began decreasing probationers and taking on a larger number of parolees as the pandemic progressed. The monthly variability of populations shifted as well, becoming more volatile in the pandemic period. Active absconder populations shifted as well, growing and becoming more variable after March 2020. Implications for community corrections practice and research will be discussed.

Authors

• Jason Rydberg, University of Massachusetts Lowell

• Edmund F. McGarrell, Michigan State University

• Michael Cassidy, Niagara University