An Examination of the Relationship Between Social Ties and Recidivism: Does the Association Change When Using Different Follow-up Lengths?

• In Event: Substantive Implications of Variation in Official Measures of Juvenile Recidivism

Abstract

Evidence indicates that having strong social ties (e.g., to family or school) can reduce the likelihood of criminal re-offending among those released from the juvenile justice system. Yet we also know that when recidivism studies use multiple follow-up periods, the number of people recidivating increases at subsequent follow-ups. This study investigates whether the association of social ties with recidivism changes at different follow-up lengths (e.g., 12-months, 24-months, 36-months, etc.). Moreover, we investigate the extent to which this change explains the increasing rates of recidivism at later follow-ups. To this end, we use data from a sample of 1,686 youths released from the supervision of the Oregon Youth Authority between fiscal years 2012-2016. Preliminary results indicate that the association of school attachment with recidivism fades at each subsequent follow-up. The association between family attachment and recidivism also changes overtime; the association increases at the initial follow-up, but then decreases at later follow-ups. These results suggest that social ties have differing effects at different time points and may potentially explain why recidivism increases at later follow-ups. Theoretical and policy implications are discussed.

Authors

• William Casey, Florida State University

• Sonja Siennick, Florida State University