Dynamic Risk Trajectories, Community Context, and Juvenile Recidivism

• In Event: NIJ-Supported Research on Understanding and Measuring Juvenile Reoffending

Abstract

The goal of the current study was to identify the distinct trajectories in dynamic risk and protective factors among youth on probation and assess whether different patterns in risk over time are associated with continued offending. Group-based trajectory modeling was used to identify distinct trajectories across multiple domains of risk/need. The individual- and neighborhood-level factors associated with these trajectories are then explored, prior to examining their relationship to continued delinquent behavior. Results suggest that a sizable combination of risk/needs trajectories exist among youth on probation. These distinct trajectories are differentially associated with individual and neighborhood characteristics. A select number of trajectories also appear to be indicative of continued offending both while on probation and post completion. Findings have implications for the use of dynamic risk assessment among youth on probation as well as juvenile recidivism research more generally.

Authors

• Kevin Wolff, John Jay College of Criminal Justice, CUNY

• Michael Baglivio, Youth Opportunity Investments

• Jonathan Intravia, Ball State University