Re-examining Japan's Modern Terrorism History - An Analysis Based on the "Four Waves" Framework.

• In Event: Patterns in Terrorism

Abstract

This study aims to reassess the history of modern terrorism in Japan. Based on this, it also briefly analyzes the prospects for future terrorism threats in Japan. Specific research questions are as follows: (1) What are the characteristics of the terrorist situation in Japan since approximately the late 19th century to date?, and (2) How serious is the possible rise of far-right terrorist movements in Japan in the future?

This study relies on the "four waves of modern terrorism" framework proposed by David C. Rapoport to analyze the first question. The study also utilizes an integrated framework of criminal opportunity and causality theory to deal with the second question. The discussion is primarily a narrative qualitative analysis. Although there have been other studies on Japan's terrorism situation, there has been no in-depth academic analysis based on the internationally recognized "Four Waves" framework.

The preliminary conclusions of this study are as follows. (1) Japan's modern terrorism history generally exhibits the characteristics explained by the "four waves" framework, with some exceptions. (2) The likelihood of a future surge of far-right terrorist movements in Japan seems not as high as in other Western developed countries, but it remains hardly predictable.

Author

• Yoshiki Kobayashi, Meiji University