The Public's Overestimation of Recidivism Rates

• In Event: Understanding Criminal Justice Attitudes: Crime, Contact, and Consequences

Abstract

Research shows that the risk of recidivism decreases with age, and that the risk of re-offending eventually, after a certain amount of “clean time”, matches the risk of a new arrest of those who do not have no criminal record. It is unclear, however, to what extent the public is aware of this research. This study tests the accuracy of the public’s knowledge by using arrest records as a benchmark and then asking a large public online sample (N=1346) about the likelihoods of first-time offenders to be arrested again compared to the likelihood of the general population to be arrested for a first offense. The results show that respondents highly overestimate first-time offenders’ likelihood to recidivate. This overestimation becomes more pronounced over time. The public’s inaccurate beliefs on the risk of recidivism have important policy implications for reentry policies and community support for people with criminal records.

Authors

• Sarah Kuehn, Slippery Rock University

• Joachim Vosgerau, Bocconi University, Italy