Comparing State-Level Estimates from the National Incident Based Reporting System (NIBRS) and the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS)

• In Event: Enhancing the Measurement of Crime in the U.S.

Abstract

Both the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) and Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program are expanding the types of estimates that can be produced at the state level. In 2016, the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) updated the NCVS sample design to facilitate producing estimates in the largest 22 states. In 2021, the UCR Program adopted the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) as the sole method for law enforcement agencies (LEAs) to submit reported crime data to the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). This change resulted in (1) more states submitting NIBRS data relative to prior years and (2) the creation of representative estimates in states with enough LEA participation. These developments offer, for the first time, the opportunity to conduct detailed comparisons of crimes reported to the police across the two data sources. However, before doing so, several considerations should be addressed. This presentation will cover methodological and statistical issues that impact comparisons between NCVS and NIBRS estimates, as well as offer guidance and best practices. Key considerations include identifying criteria to determine states suitable for comparison, evaluating definitional and measurement aspects that may influence comparative findings, assessing statistical reliability, and accounting for differences in how statistical precision is calculated.

Authors

• Marcus Berzofsky, RTI International

• Lynn Langton, RTI International

• Chris Krebs, RTI International

• Erica L Smith, Bureau of Justice Statistics

• Grace Kena, U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics

• Heather Brotsos, Bureau of Justice Statistics