Conviction Prevalence and Recidivism Rates Across Birth Cohorts During the Crime Drop

• In Event: New Advances in the Prediction of Crime and Recidivism

Abstract

This paper estimates conviction prevalence and recidivism rates in Pennsylvania of birth cohorts from 1983 to 1994. Across these birth cohorts there is good common support for measuring conviction prevalence, number of convictions, and 3-year recidivism rates from age 18 to 22 after accounting for time incarcerated. Beginning with the birth cohorts of the 1990s, conviction prevalence decline even 3-year recidivism rates begin to increase. The paper goes on to speculate on how a macro-level threshold process results in an inverse relationship between conviction prevalence and recidivism across cohort.

Author

• Dan Nagin, Carnegie Mellon University