Why is Aging Out Phasing Out? Predictors of the Flattening Age-Crime Curve

• In Event: New Advances in the Prediction of Crime and Recidivism

Abstract

The non-linear relationship between age and crime, where age and criminal involvement are positively related through adolescence then transition to be negatively related through adulthood, is one of the most consistent findings in developmental and life-course criminology. I first demonstrate that the age-crime curve derived from measures of arrest has flattened as aggregate arrests decreased. I then validate estimates of the age-crime curve from the National Survey of Drug Use and Health over 2002-2020 using UCR and NIBRS data. To test competing and complementary theories of crime, I then recast annual age-crime functions as Lorenz curves to test for differences in parity based on the Gini coefficient over time. Finally, I adapt Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition to account for these differences using behavioral, social, and structural predictors of arrest using NSDUH. This analysis helps explain the contribution of changing socioeconomic conditions, law enforcement, and the opioid and methamphetamine epidemics toward the changing distribution of crime in the U.S. over the past two decades.

Author

• Greg Midgette, University of Maryland