The Great Decoupling: Homicide and (other) Crime Trends, 1986-2020

• In Event: The Antecedents of Homicide and Hate Crime

Abstract

Homicide rate increases in 2015 and 2020 exhibited an unusual characteristic. While homicide rates climbed rapidly, trends in other types of crime remained relatively stable or even declined. This disparate trends in crime raise the question – are crime trends correlated? To examine this seeming de-coupling of homicide trends from other types of crime, the current study analyzes state-level crime rates from 1986 through 2020. After de-trending the data, bivariate correlations during each five-year period (1986-1990, 1991-1995, etc.) reveal that homicide trends have become increasingly de-coupled from other trends in crime. In the periods prior to the year 2001, crime trends were all positively and significantly correlated. Since 2001, property crime trends are largely uncorrelated or negatively correlated with homicide trends and assault (2001-2005) and robbery (2016-2020) trends are sometimes not significantly correlated with homicide trends. From 2016 to 2020, the changes in the homicide rate were negatively and significant correlated with trends in larceny and burglary and uncorrelated with robbery. The results suggest that researchers need to be cognizant of differential crime trends rather than examining crime trends as a unified phenomenon.

Author

• James Tuttle, University of Montana