The Politics of Prejudice: Group Threat, Hate Crimes, and Presidential Elections

• In Event: Understanding the Future of Hate: Concepts, Theories, and Trends in Bias Crimes Research

Abstract

Does group threat theory explain changes in hate crimes during the Obama and Trump presidential campaigns? In this paper, we explore: 1) was there an increase in overall hate crimes and/or against particular target groups during the campaign? 2) If so, was the increase consistent across the campaign, or did particular events have unique effects? Using the FBI’s 2006-2019 Hate Crimes data, we track anti-Black, anti-Islamic, anti-Jewish, anti-Hispanic, and overall reported hate crimes surrounding five campaign milestones – announcement, presumptive and official nomination, election, and inauguration. Using OLS regression, we compare daily reported hate crimes in the five years surrounding the event, and find they were uniquely affected by whose campaign was occurring and sometimes the particular milestone. Across Obama’s campaign, overall hate crimes decreased, while they increased during Trump’s campaign. Additionally, we find significant differences in when anti-Black crimes decreased, the direction of anti-Islamic crimes, and the unique effect of the Trump campaign on anti-Hispanic crimes. These findings suggest that threat manifests differently dependent upon the target group’s relative social positions (i.e. perceived threat to the status quo). Future explorations include the explanatory power of social dominance orientation, and if patterns hold when restricting to specific types of crimes.

Authors

• Ashley Veronica Reichelmann, Virginia Tech

• Jonathan Andrew LLoyd, Virginia Tech