Statistical estimation processes to produce crime statistics with NIBRS data

• In Event: The New National Standard for Reported Crime Data: Estimating Crime Based on NIBRS

Abstract

BJS and the FBI have collaborated with RTI International on the development of the statistical processes needed to estimate the incidents and characteristics of crime and arrest in the U.S. based on National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) data. At the time of the transition to NIBRS on January 1, 2021, upwards of 45% of law enforcement agencies were not submitting their data to the system. Hence, it was critical that the estimation processes address the coverage gap and data quality considerations in the reported NIBRS data.

Theoretical data quality assessment frameworks were utilized first to identify potential quality issues and possible remediation strategies. Statistical adjustment procedures were then developed and implemented into the estimation process to mitigate the identified issues. Final adjusted data were used to produce estimates, and a variance estimation procedure was created. This presentation will discuss the various steps in this process, as well as provide an overview of the initial estimates generated. Presenters will also contrast the newly-developed NIBRS estimation procedures to those historically applied to summary-based crime statistics.

Author

• Dan Liao, RTI International