Introducing the National Institute of Justice Recidivism Forecasting Challenge

• In Event: Lightning Talk: Findings and Insights from the National Institute of Justice Recidivism Forecasting Challenge

Abstract

The National Institute of Justice (NIJ) recently hosted the Fiscal Year 2021 Recidivism Forecasting Challenge. The primary aim of this research competition was to increase public safety and the fair administration of justice by improving the ability to forecast and understand the variables that impact the likelihood that an individual under parole supervision will recidivate. To do so, Challenge entrants were given a training dataset of over 18,000 individuals on parole in Georgia and a test dataset (n=7,807) for predicting recidivism in the first, second, or third year on parole. The Challenge was designed to improve the accuracy and fairness of forecasts by identifying key variables, accounting for gender-specific needs, and adjusting for potential racial bias in predicting recidivism. The Challenge encouraged data scientists from all fields to build upon the current knowledge base for forecasting recidivism while also infusing innovative methods and new perspectives.

Author

• Joel Hunt, National Institute of Justice