Is the use of the hotspot strategy effective in Peru? The results of the Barrio Seguro Multisectoral Strategy in the fight against crime

• In Event: Roundtable: Latin American Criminology: Finding a Place Amid Global, Regional, and Local Challenges (Sponsored by Division of International Criminology)

Abstract

One in every four Peruvians is a victim of a crime every year, and more the 80% of households consider insecurity the leading country problem. In 2016, Peru implemented a hotspots strategy to prevent crime. This study measures the impact of the Barrio Seguro program (EMBS) in the 92 most dangerous neighborhoods in Peru. We take advantage of the staggered implementation design at the neighborhood level and exploit geo-referenced data for the neighborhood's delimitation and the primary sampling units from the Survey of Strategic Programs. We apply the staggered Diff-Diff design proposed by Callaway and Sant'Anna (2020) to the intervened neighborhoods and areas of influence (geographical buffers of 0.5, 1,3, and 5km). We assess the robustness of our results by applying event study, placebo dates, and falsification tests. Results show that while fear of crime diminished, victimization, reporting rates, and trust in the police did not. We highlight that these findings are very likely related to the limitations of the program implementation. Based on this, we will reflect on the conditions that foster and limit police programs' effectiveness in a global south context.

Author

• Wilson Hernandez, University of Pennsylvania