Ideology and Arrest Rate: An Investigation of the Summer Protests of 2020

• In Event: Poster Session

Abstract

Prior research has found a correlation between the summer 2020 protests and city-level crime rates (Campbell, 2021; Gross & Mann, 2017; Lane, 2020; Rosenfeld & Lopez, 2020). However, this work has been: (1) unable to parse out competing COVID-19 pandemic effects, and (2) has not examined how this relationship varies by type of protest. In regards to this latter limitation, previous work has indicated that when law enforcement perceives policing to be “under attack” by a protest movement, or that this same movement advances minority interests, they are more likely to use forceful tactics (Reynolds-Stenson, 2018). Such findings are consistent with racial threat theory, which postulates that state actors use force to maintain the status quo of racial dynamics in America, with the police as a tool to this end. This study investigates how two types of protests, those that challenge policing and advance minority interests, affect daily arrest rates for nonwhites. Utilizing the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) and arrest data obtained through an open records request, this study presents preliminary findings for 5 U.S. cities.

Author

• Joseph Hartman, University of Central Missouri