The Effect of a Criminal Procedure Reform on Crime Rates: Evidence from a Quasi-Experimental Adversarial Reform

• In Event: International and Community Perspectives on Prosecutorial Decisions

Abstract

The literature on crime control has largely documented the effect of the substantial penal law on crime rates. This research has been important in understanding the role that criminal justice plays in altering the incentives to engage in illegal activities. Yet, few researchers have explored the effect of changes in criminal procedures on crime rates. In this paper, we study the Latin American adversarial reform to examine the impact of an extensive procedural reform on criminal behavior. To overcome the challenges of previous studies, we use Colombia as a case study since it had a quasi-experimental implementation and used the most recent two-way-fixed-effects literature. Despite the incentives to reduce criminal behavior introduced by the reform, we find an increase in overall crime rates(22%), violent crime(15%), and property crime(8%). Our results suggest that contrary to previous research, increasing the certainty of punishment might fail to achieve the intended consequences if prison conditions are not improved. Especially if the changes in criminal procedure negatively affect arrest rates, decreasing the probability of apprehension. While procedural reforms might increase the likelihood of imprisonment and bring punishment closer in time, harsh prison conditions and changes in prosecutorial and policing activity might undermine the reform’s benefits.

Author

• Angela Zorro Medina, University of Chicago