Why are Incarceration Rates Declining?

• In Event: 50 Years of Mass Incarceration: Survey of Harm, II

Abstract

National decreases in the incarceration rate since 2008 have led some researchers,
activists, and policymakers to conclude the mass incarceration is in its twilight years. However,
these claims have been challenged by a second vein of research arguing that carceral policies are
too “locked in” for recent decreases in incarceration to be sustainable. In this view, prisons will
expand again should crime crawl back upwards. Despite these competing arguments on recent
decreases in the incarceration rate, we know surprisingly little about why incarceration rates have
declined in some states. This study uses a continuous decomposition to evaluate the long- and
short-term sources of decreases in state incarceration rates between 1991 and 2020. It assesses
the contributions of changing political party platforms, rising polarization, sentencing reform,
crime, and state fiscal capacity. The results shed new light on recent prison shrinkage and
provide clarity on whether carceral policy is too “locked in” to dismantle mass incarceration
without more aggressive policy effort.

Author

• Scott Duxbury, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill