Does the Market Matter? Examining the Association between Auto Prices on Auto Theft

• In Event: Current Issues in Property and Public Order Crime

Abstract

From 2019 to 2022, motor vehicle theft across 30 large American cities increased by 59%. While it is unclear what caused this increase, one suggestion is a rise in motor vehicle prices (Rosenfeld et al., 2023). However, the extant research on prices and motor vehicle theft has only examined changes in the consumer price index rather than changes to vehicle prices (Allen, 1996; Ralston, 1999; Rosenfeld & Levin, 2016). Furthermore, this research has produced mixed results. The purpose of auto theft, such as selling the entire car or vehicle, may also be associated with certain city characteristics like a young male population (Roberts & Block, 2012). This project builds on past research by examining the historical relationship between motor vehicle theft and new and used car prices between 1960 and 2020. Preliminary evidence suggests a marginal relationship ( p > .10) between new car prices and vehicle theft. Further analyses will incorporate city-level characteristics in a panel model. Additionally, this project will explore the relationship between the recent dramatic increase in motor vehicle theft and auto prices using quarterly data.

Authors

• Ernesto Lopez, Council on Criminal Justice

• Robert David Boxerman, University of Missouri - St. Louis