Pandemic, Politics, and Crime: Applying a Legitimacy Framework

• In Event: Social, Political, and Institutional Sources of Control

Abstract

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers have postulated and examined the effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic. Numerous studies have analyzed the shifts and trends in crime at different time intervals and examined changing economic conditions and daily activities. Most of these studies have studied the possible effects of the pandemic either through a general strain (Agnew, 1992) or routine activities (Cohen and Felson, 1979) perspective. In addition to these effects, opinions and pandemic-related policies were politicized. For instance, one analysis of reopening after COVID-19 lockdowns found that states with Republican governors reopened sooner (Camobreco and He, 2021). Using Schoon’s (2022) dyadic legitimacy approach, I examine whether COVID-19 cases and deaths impacted crime differently in Republican and Democrat jurisdictions. Using NIBRS incident data from 2019-2020, I find preliminary evidence that COVID-19 deaths and cases are associated with increases in violent crime in states controlled by Republican governors, while increases in property crimes are associated with Democratic governors. Additional analyses will consider other measures of political control.

Author

• Ernesto Lopez, Council on Criminal Justice