Crime is normal until it isn’t: The case of abnormally low homicide rates in Chile during Pinochet’s reign

• In Event: Population-Level Research on Homicide: US, International, and Cross-National Studies

Abstract

The primary aim of this study is to examine the non-state sponsored homicide victimization trends within Chile from 1960 to 2020. After an overview of the historical incidents within Chile, I test a series of hypotheses to assess if the repressive tactics of General Pinochet's regime are associated with non-state sponsored homicide in Chile. Furthermore, I explore whether General Pinochet’s eventual removal of immunity and arrest are associated with an increase in homicide in Chile after controlling for alternative explanations. I utilize two quasi-experimental methods: interrupted time series and synthetic control models for case studies. The interrupted time series speaks to the immediate effects of General Pinochet’s rise to power, his transition to commander-in-chief of the Army, and his eventual arrest in Chile. The synthetic control models explore the synthetic (counterfactual) Chile, in which General Pinochet never rose to power. Homicide rates significantly decreased in 1973 and remained significantly lower during the time General Pinochet had influence in Chile. In synthetic Chile, homicide rates were higher than the observed homicide rates. I conclude by situating these findings into the larger criminological literature.

Author

• Meghan L. Rogers, University of Iowa