Effects of Military Intervention on Homicide in Mexico, 2007-2022

• In Event: Population-Level Research on Homicide: US, International, and Cross-National Studies

Abstract

In the sixteen years between 2007 and 2022, following President Calderón’s declaration of war against the cartels, close to half a million people died of homicide in Mexico. The nation has an extremely high homicide rate, driven largely by cartel violence, and prior studies in LAC suggested military interventions may exacerbate, not reduce, violence. I examined the impact of military intervention on homicide and gun homicide rates across municipalities in Mexico using a two-way panel fixed effect model. The sample includes from 2,454 municipalities between 2007 through 2022 (t = 16). Using annual homicide data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography and confrontation data from the Mexican military, the results indicate military confrontation is positively associated with total homicide and gun homicide rate.

Author

• Guillermo J. Escano, Villanova University