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This paper seek to contribute to efforts to understand the limits and possibilities of effective deterrence-based criminal justice policy. To this end, we build on prior work and recent theoretical advances to argue that fundamental problems with classical deterrence theory exist. We argue that these undermine the likely effectiveness of extant deterrence-based policies as well as the ability to devise new ones that are likely to be effective. We identify advances in deterrence theory that shed light on these problems as well as how deterrence-based policies might be designed to increase the likelihood of appreciable deterrent effects on crime. In so doing, we emphasize that, ironically, more effective deterrence might arise not from a greater focus on punishment but from targeting other elements of deterrence, such as the rewards of non-crime.