Sources for Perceptions of Risk: A Prospective Longitudinal Study

• In Event: Re-evaluating Deterrence Theory

Abstract

Leading scholars have proposed that criminal decision making is rational. Central to their argument is that human perception of risk is meaningful and measurable. But there is a small body of evidence that suggests that this might not be the case. To date, we do not understand what drives variation in perceptions of the assessment of risk, generally. Nor do we understand what drives variation in perception of risk of apprehension (arrest) for criminal behavior, specifically. Using data from the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health & Development Research Unit in New Zealand, the present study is among the first to study the development of risk perception during the first two decades of life. The study is also among the first to analyze the criminal decision-making process while considering person-level perceptions of risk. The study seeks to understand the early life personality and social psychological factors that underly the development of perception of risk detection. We examine whether there is variation in the perception of risk of arrest in adolescence, whether variation in perception of risk is linked to the early childhood environment, and whether variation in perception of risk is linked to psychological and personality factors that emerge in childhood.

Authors

• Tom Moglovkin, University of Cincinnati

• JC Barnes, University of Cincinnati