Neighborhood Revitalization and Crime: A Case Study of Watts’ Redevelopment

• In Event: Community Building

Abstract

Redeveloping public housing into mixed-income communities has been linked to reduced crime but triggered concerns for resident displacement and community gentrification. The new era of housing redevelopments seeks to minimize these concerns. This paper investigates the impact of such a redevelopment program in Watts, Los Angeles. Initiating in 2018, the Jordan Downs (JD) project adopted a "built-first" approach, guaranteeing no involuntary displacement, while also enhancing the broader Watts area.

We employ the synthetic control method and an event study framework to analyze crime trends in Watts over 2010-2023, utilizing data from the Sheriff and police departments. To understand the mechanisms and heterogeneity in crime changes, we conduct a hotspot analysis to examine crime in JD versus rest of Watts pre- versus post-redevelopment. We find significant reductions in property and violent crimes in Watts post-redevelopment. Within Watts, all subcategories of crimes increase in JD but decrease in other areas. The non-displacement of residents alongside the opening of a new retail plaza in JD arguably presented more opportunities for crime. Nonetheless, this increase was more than offset by crime reduction in the rest of Watts, likely from built environment improvements.

Authors

• Lizhong Liu, University of Southern California

• Ashlesha Datar, Center for Economic and Social Research, University of Southern California

• Nancy Nicosia, RAND Corporation