Predictors of Successful Resolutions in Crisis Negotiations: An Anlaysis of the FBI's HOBAS Database

• In Event: Averting Crisis: Police Programs and Training

Abstract

Crisis negotiation incidents are traditionally emotionally charged and can often prove to be highly dynamic situations. Using the Hostage and Barricade Database System (HOBAS), we used correlations and logistic regressions to examine the situational characteristics that predicted successful negotiation resolution and successful avoidance of violence during crisis negotiations. Characteristics related to incidents were typically more predictive than characteristics related to subjects. Situational characteristics that reduced the likelihood of successful negotiation included the presence of a weapon or property damage at the scene. Communications initiated by a trained responder or conducted with a technological voice uniquely predicted successful negotiated resolutions, whereas communications with a bullhorn predicted less success in negotiation and more successful tactical resolutions. Additionally, when trained negotiators-initiated communication with a subject, it was significantly more likely to result in successful negotiation, whereas when an incident commander routinely trained with SWAT, violence was more likely to occur after the onset of an incident. These findings suggest that training is a cornerstone of crisis negotiation, and though tactical response may be appropriate in certain contexts, it is essential that negotiators are aware of the situations in which it should be applied.

Authors

• Steven Andrew Pace, University of Nevada, Las Vegas

• Logan Kennedy, East Carolina University

• Stephen Benning, University of Nevada, Las Vegas

• Tim Healy, FBI