The Impact of COVID-19 Lockdowns on Crime Demand and Charge Volumes in England and Wales

• In Event: Policing During Trying Times

Abstract

This study was carried out by UK Government analysts to explore the impact of COVID-19 lockdown measures on crime demand and charge volumes in England and Wales. The analysis took advantage of the changing conditions created by COVID-19 restrictions as a 'natural experiment' by drawing on police statistics and forecasting (ARIMA) analysis to understand the impact of changes in crime workload on charges.

The findings show that two contrasting effects played out. Firstly, a 'reverse workload effect' appeared to take place in the first three months of COVID-19 lockdowns, whereby marked, short-term falls in crime workload led to an increase in charge volumes for a diverse range of crime types. The spread of crime types affected, as well as qualitative evidence, suggest three separate factors led to these changes. First, the police reallocated resources to clear backlogs of open cases. Secondly, prosecutor resources were reallocated to deal with police referred cases in the wake of court closures. Finally, more proactive policing – principally higher levels of stop and search - resulted in more charges for drugs possession offences. Conversely, for some crime types (shoplifting), charge volumes fell sharply once COVID-19 restrictions were imposed due to precipitous falls in some recorded crimes.

Author

• Scarlett Furlong, UK Home Office