Examining the Relationship between Conspiracy Beliefs and Willingness to Engage in Violent Extremism over Time

• In Event: Conspiracies, Linguistics, Willingness to Engage in Violent Extremism, and How AI Can Help Prevent It

Abstract

The spread of conspiracy theories and violent extremist ideologies threaten to undermine our democratic foundations and create fundamental issues of trust on which our democracy lies. The COVID-19 pandemic, the growth of anti-government and anti-establishment movements as well as political elites and mainstream media figures increasingly propagating extreme rhetoric and conspiracy beliefs, have led to declining levels of trust in our political and government institutions and to increasing polarization between social and political groups. To address these growing issues, we conduct 5-wave prospective-longitudinal online surveys (each n=1500) among the U.S. population throughout the U.S. 2024 presidential election year in order to examine potential temporal changes in conspiracy theories propagated and to monitor changes in extremist attitudes, intentions, and behaviours among the general population. We will apply latent growth curve modelling and mixture modelling to examine potential change, causal relationships and latent groups underlying trajectory profiles. By conducting these first-of-a-kind longitudinal surveys on the trajectories of different violent extremist outcomes, conspiracy theories as well as their associated risk and protective factors prior and leading up to the U.S. general election, we provide unique insights into the developmental trajectories and causal mechanisms.

Authors

• Bettina Rottweiler, University College of London

• Paul Gill, University College of London