Will the Age-Crime Curve Stay Same in the Future?

• In Event: Exploring Criminology and its Controversies in Historical Context

Abstract

Gottfredson and Hirschi’s age-crime curve suggests that individuals' involvement in crime reaches its peak during the mid- to late-teen period and declines rapidly with age. Such an age-crime relationship has been believed to be invariant over time. Using UCR arrest data, the present study utilized yearly age-crime curves for the past two decades to examine whether the shape of the age-crime curve has changed over time with a certain pattern. Then, it used the change pattern to forecast the age-crime curve for the future using the out-of-sample method. The findings suggest that the shape of the age-crime curve is changing slowly over time, and the peak of the age-crime curve has become wider in the future, spanning the range from mid- to late-20s. It also shows that the arrest rates of older people have increased slowly over time. Important implications of such changes were discussed.

Author

• Young S. Kim, Eastern Michigan University