Examining Crime Around Supervised Consumption Sites Using a Count-Based Synthetic Control Method

• In Event: Experimental Methods in Criminology (Sponsored by the Division of Experimental Criminology)

Abstract

We analyzed the impact of supervised consumption sites (SCSs) on local crime in New York City, differentiating between violent and property crimes. We used a synthetic control approach to compare police administrative crime data before and after SCS establishment in two NYC neighborhoods, using syringe exchange sites for the control construction. This quasi-experimental design was utilized to infer the causal effects of SCSs on crime, creating a rigorous evaluation framework that considers local spatial effects. Synthetic control approaches are increasingly used in quasi-experimental studies within criminal justice, but they run into problems when dealing with low-volume count data, as are often encountered in studies of crime at locations. This study employed an innovative method designed by Carl Bonander to overcome both the low volume count challenge and issues of temporal autocorrelation. We found a significant increase in property crimes around the Washington Heights SCS after it opened. We did not see changes in violent or property crimes near the East Harlem site. These findings suggest a differential impact of SCSs on neighborhood crime, possibly moderated by local factors.

Authors

• Jerry H. Ratcliffe, Temple University

• John J. Hall, Metropolitan Transit Authority Police Department