Age-Crime Trajectories of Black and White Cohorts coming of Age between 1976 and 2019

• In Event: Life-Course Studies of Trajectories in and Age-Period-Cohort Effects on Crime

Abstract

Racial disparities in crime have been a central issue in criminological research, but there has been a notable lack of attention given to the changing landscape of racial inequality over time and its impact on different generations. With the history of racial segregation and discrimination in the U.S., societal shifts and policy changes may have distinct effects on the life course experiences of Black and White cohorts in different historical context. Thus, this project aims to address the research gap by investigating the Black-White differences in age-crime trajectories across generations in the past 40 years. Utilizing the Monitoring the Future (MTF) restricted panel data from 1976 to 2019 (N=18,506), the study analyzes race-specific trajectories of property and violent delinquency from ages 18 to 30 among various generations, including late boomers, Gen X, Millennials, and early Gen Z. Preliminary findings suggest shifts in Black-White differences in the age-crime trajectories. Employing the age-period-cohort analysis approach, the study also reveals racial disparities in the period and cohort effects. The findings of this project will identify the unique challenges encountered by different generations of Black adolescents and provide important insights for policy development aimed at addressing the needs of recent racial minority cohorts.

Authors

• Yunmei Lu, University at Buffalo, SUNY

• Makaela Brass, University at Buffalo, SUNY