Does Age Matter? Protective vs Risk Factors in Predicting Violent Recidivism By Adolescent Age Groups

• In Event: The Role of Risk and Protective Factors in Juvenile Justice

Abstract

The focus on youth’s protective factors in youth justice settings has been increasing in the past decade due to evidence of their prediction of decreased recidivism. However, the research remains unclear as to whether protective factors add predictive value to recidivism compared to risk factors alone. Additionally, application of developmental research would suggest that the predictive utility of protective factors varies by age. The current study used a retrospective sample of court-referred youth with the Youth Assessment and Screening Instrument (YASI; N = 11,175) to examine the incremental prediction of protective factors over risk factors for new violent petitions, by age, over an average 2.5-year post-supervision follow-up period. Initial results reveal older adolescents were more likely than younger adolescents to score high in every protective factor domain except for School. Overall, protective factor domains for School and Pro-Criminal Attitudes were negatively associated with recidivism, as expected. However, the Community/Peers and Employment/Free Time domains were positively associated with recidivism. Youths’ overall protective factor level did have incremental predictive validity over youths’ overall risk level; however, it also was positively associated with recidivism. The association between these relationships and age will be discussed.

Authors

• Kayla Elizabeth Carew, University of Massachusetts Chan Medical School

• Gina Vincent, University of Massachusetts Chan Medical School