Examining the decline in youth offending across geographical regions in the U.S., 1990-2019

• In Event: Routine Activities and Situational Perspectives

Abstract

Previous research has investigated factors associated with the decrease in youth crime since the 1990s, yet few have examined how these factors manifest across geographic regions. Rural America is characterized as distinct from urban and metropolitan areas, but the temporal changes in crime among rural adolescents remains largely unexplored in criminological literature. To bridge this gap, our study compares youth crime trends from 1990 to 2019 across rural, urban, and metropolitan areas in U.S. Using decomposition analysis with data from the Monitoring the Future 12th-grade surveys (N= 90,009), we examine changes in social bonds, routine activities, and motivation for crime across these regions, examining their associations with region-specific crime patterns. Preliminary findings reveal generally consistent behavioral shifts across regions. Unstructured socializing and alcohol use are the two most robust factors accounting for the decline in youth crime across all three regions, albeit with slight variations in effect size. Findings highlight that despite disparities between rural and urban environments in other respects, adolescents across different regions respond to macro sociocultural shifts in remarkably similar ways, contributing to a consistently decline in youth offending over the past three decades.

Authors

• Yunmei Lu, University at Buffalo, SUNY

• Rachel Zhang, University at Buffalo, SUNY

• Margaret Rex, University at Buffalo, SUNY