Using Synthetic Control Methodologies to Assess Outcomes in Case Study Sites

• In Event: NIJ: Local Level Implementation and National Evaluation of Project Safe Neighborhoods

Abstract

The case study component of the PSN evaluation provides in-depth assessment of local PSN implementation in 10 carefully selected federal districts, along with examination of changes in violent crime in each target enforcement area (TEA). This presentation describes the evaluation’s use of the synthetic control method (SCM) to compare trends in violent crime rates in individual case study TEAs with those of non-intervention jurisdictions that collectively had trends similar to each subject PSN TEA prior to implementation of the enhanced PSN model in 2018. This methodology provides a stronger counter-factual than using a single matched-comparison area for each TEA. Moreover, this evaluation applied a standard SCM approach across multiple diverse PSN TEAs; most studies that have used SCM have done so for a single intervention area.
Examples will be provided where the SCM was applied successfully and where it was not possible due to lack of comparable donor jurisdictions. For successful models, the presentation will explain post-implementation changes in crime rates as a function of local PSN implementation and related efforts.

Author

• Christine Lindquist, RTI International