The Functional Form of the Relationship Between Arrest Rate Signal and Perceptions of Risk and Reward

• In Event: Re-evaluating Deterrence Theory

Abstract

Deterrence theory suggests that punishment discourages future offending by increasing the perceived risk of crime. Social learning theory posits that punishment decreases offending through a non-recursive learning process while rewards reinforce it. Both frameworks identify consistent punishment as a mechanism for reducing offending. The implicit assumption that punishment consistency linearly influences perceptions is untested. Using the Pathways to Desistance data, this study examined the functional form of the relationships between arrest rate signal (ratio of arrest to offending) and perceptions of risks and rewards. Results from generalized additive models suggested that increasing arrest signal had a positive but diminishing nonlinear effect on risk and a negative but slightly nonlinear increasing effect on rewards. These findings underscore the need for policy strategies beyond increasing experienced punishment certainty and for research to account for the nonlinearity between punishment and perceived risk and reward, especially in samples with heterogeneous offending experience.

Authors

• Sultan Altikriti, University of Pennsylvania

• Damon M. Petrich, Loyola University Chicago

• Claudia Anderson, Florida State University