Did Oregon's Measure 110 Cause Overdose Deaths and Crime to Increase: Estimation via Synthetic Controls

• In Event: Assessing and Improving Substance Abuse Treatment Programs

Abstract

After only 3 years, Oregon’s experimental harm-reduction approach to drug enforcement, Measure 110, appears likely to be repealed after HB 4002 was passed and sent to the governor. Although anecdotal evidence suggests that Oregon’s Measure 110 was unsuccessful at reducing drug use, drug addiction, or drug overdoses. While descriptive comparisons to national trends similarly suggest Oregon fared worse than other states in terms of drug overdose deaths, no study has yet disentangled the impact of Measure 110 from the continuation of the state’s pre-intervention trends and the nationally experienced lockdown shock which impacted most crime and social behavior outcomes. This study uses synthetic controls to estimate the impact of Measure 110 on overdose deaths, violent crime, and property crime. While preliminary estimates suggest the increase in overdose deaths due to Measure 110 was less than naïve descriptive comparisons had presented, the policy nonetheless appears responsible for some increases in deaths due to drug overdoses.

Author

• Bradley Bartos, University of Arizona, School of Government and Public Policy