Decomposition of Age-Period-Cohort Effects on Crime: A Case Study of South Korea

• In Event: Life-Course Studies of Trajectories in and Age-Period-Cohort Effects on Crime

Abstract

Objective:
Recent research on non-Western countries reports age-crime relationships contradictory to the prevailing criminological hypothesis, which posits a decline in criminal activity as individuals age beyond their twenties. This study aims to elucidate the underlying factors contributing to this discord through demographic methodology.

Data/Methods:
Utilizing intrinsic estimator (IE) analysis alongside four decades (1980-2020) of crime data from South Korea, we decompose age, period, and cohort effects on the occurrence of six types of crime.

Results:
Age effects on assaults and theft show an inverted J shape, while fraud exhibits an inverted U shape. Regarding period effects, there is an upsurge in violent index crimes in 2005, while fraud shows an upturn in 1995. Cohort effects suggest a decreasing trend in assaults, alongside an increase in fraud.

Implications:
South Korea is a unique country experiencing rapid social change and exhibiting many extreme features. The case of South Korea suggests that the age-crime relationship may vary depending on social context and cultural transformations.

Authors

• Yeondae Jung, Joongbu University

• Sungil Han, University of North Carolina at Charlotte