What were the effects of the methamphetamine and opioid epidemics on mass incarceration?

• In Event: Drug Markets and Drug Policy: Methodological Advances and Theoretical Perspectives

Abstract

Objective: To investigate the impact of changes in sentencing guidelines and the distribution of drug cases over time and geography on sentencing and incarceration in
federal prisons.

Methods: The study analyzes United States Sentencing Commission data for all federal court cases involving drug trafficking offenses over 2003-2022. For each drug type, a series of regressions are estimated to measure the impact of guidelines changes on sentencing behaviors by defendant race, ethnicity, and gender. Trajectories of sentences by drug type net of differences in defendant characteristics are generated.

Results: The racial composition of defendants by drug, differences in guideline sentences by drug, and regional variability in judges’ utilization of sentencing relief mechanisms contributed to changes in racial disparities after the crack epidemic. Changes in the composition of local illicit drug markets, including the proliferation of very potent forms of opioids and methamphetamine and the concomitant rise in
overdose risk are discussed.

Authors

• Greg Midgette, University of Maryland, College Park

• Brian D. Johnson, University of Maryland, College Park