Research on Violent Crime and Mobility Network Among Chinese Cities Based on Exponential Random Graph Models

• In Event: Methodological Issues in the Study of Violence

Abstract

Despite the increasing scholarly interest in China's daily intercity mobility patterns, facilitated by the burgeoning availability and use of geolocated data, the relationship between crime and these mobility patterns remains underexplored. This study aims to fill this gap by examining the extent to which violence within origin and destination societies influence the formation of intercity mobility ties. To achieve this, we adopted a social network analysis framework, specifically using exponential-family random graph models (ERGMs), to analyze the complex intercity migration flow network. Our data sources include Baidu's migration data (tracking population movements) and the judgment dataset from Chinese courts of first instance concerning cases of intentional homicide and serious assault. Our analysis attempts to investigate the role of violence in shaping the intercity mobility landscape, providing insights into how such social factors contribute to the differential embeddedness of cities within the broader structure of China's mobility network. By doing so, we expect to make a novel contribution to both criminological and spatial analysis literature by presenting evidence of the association between violence and the pattern of intercity connections throughout China. The findings have the potential to inform policy and intervention strategies aimed at improving the prospects of regions affected by violence.

Authors

• Yuxuan Gloria Gu, The Chinese University of Hong Kong

• Hua Zhong, The Chinese University of Hong Kong