Reassuring or frightening? Cross-national longitudinal analysis of government ideology’s influence on individuals’ fear of crime

• In Event: Fear of Crime and National Politics

Abstract

Fear of crime has far-reaching implications for individuals, communities, and societies at large. Our research seeks to explore the often-overlooked macro-level determinant of national government political ideology in shaping this fear. Specifically, we aim to investigate whether shifts in government political ideology impact individuals' levels of fear of crime, while considering the potential moderating effects of citizens' education levels and ideological orientations. We develop a theoretical framework to delineate the potential consequences of government party ideology on citizens' fear of crime, recognizing that certain political parties may employ fear tactics to bolster their popularity. Using longitudinal data from the European Social Survey spanning 33 countries over nearly two decades (2002-2020), we integrate micro-level survey data with country-level indicators to examine the influence of government ideology on fear of crime. Our analysis focuses on two key dependent variables: feelings of insecurity when walking alone at night and concerns about the likelihood of experiencing home burglary. Employing multilevel regression models for repeated cross-sections and incorporating a rich set of time-varying country-level features, we leverage within-country variations to mitigate time-constant heterogeneity across countries. Our study enriches understanding of contextual factors shaping fear of crime in contemporary societies by bridging political science and criminology.

Authors

• Moris Triventi, University of Milan

• Marco Calaresu, University of Sassari

• Mirko Nazzari, University of Sassari