Examining Associations Between Disruptions to the Illicit Drug Market and Violent Crime

• In Event: Drugs, Drug Markets, and Crime: Attempting to Unpack the Drug-Crime Relationship

Abstract

The use of illicit substances remains an ongoing and widespread part of society, with the illegal drug market estimated to be 1% of total global trade. The true scale of this market is unknown because it is an illicit underground trade that is poorly understood, dynamic, and complex. While there have been trends towards decriminalization or legalization of marijuana in the United States, the overarching policy and strategy has consistently been to allocate large amounts of resources to law enforcement agencies to disrupt and dismantle illicit distribution networks. While, there is longstanding consensus that the connection between drugs and violence results from the conditions of the illicit market rather than drug effects it is not well understood whether disruptions to the drug market are associated with violence in communities. In the present study, we use a two-way fixed effects (TWFE) model to estimate contemporaneous and lagged associations between drug market disruptions (law enforcement drug seizures) and violent crime using data from the National Incident-based Reporting System (NIBRS) from 2013-2020. Findings and imputation techniques to address item and agency non-response are discussed as well as policy implications and directions for future research.

Authors

• Laura Odylis Mora, North Carolina State University

• Maria Mayorga, North Carolina State University

• Osman Ozaltin, North Carolina State University

• Philip Lee, RTI International

• Amang Sukasih, RTI International

• Lance Couzens, RTI International

• Bradley Ray, RTI International

• Nick Richardson, RTI International