Mapping the Developmental Sequences of Risk Factors Underlying Persistence in Crime

• In Event: Recent Results from the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development

Abstract

In Criminology, the relationship between developmental multisystemic vulnerabilities and persistent trajectories of offending is well-established. Nonetheless, to our knowledge, no study has systematically examined how sequences of multisystemic vulnerabilities across development influence the persistence of criminal behaviour into adulthood among justice-involved youths. Therefore, our aim is to identify the developmental sequences of risk factors that contribute to adult criminal convictions among males with justice involvement during childhood and/or adolescence. Using the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development, sequences of risk factors at ages 8-10, 12-14, and 16-18 were mapped and analysed as predictors of adult criminal convictions in males first convicted before age 21. Childhood vulnerabilities related to parenting-related problems, low attainment, and children’s risk-taking behaviour at ages 8-10 emerged as the most relevant starting points for predictive developmental sequences leading to adult convictions. At ages 12-14, hyperactivity, low nonverbal IQ, and delinquent friends emerged as the most relevant risk factors for crime-predictive developmental sequences, followed by school failure and sexual promiscuity at ages 16-18. This work is the first step towards the development of a new generation of tailored interventions for the justice system, which could focus on addressing particularly harmful risk factors within specific developmental risk trajectories.

Authors

• Miguel Basto-Pereira, William James Center for Research, Ispa-Instituto Universitário, Lisbon, Portugal

• Darrick Jolliffe, Royal Holloway University of London

• Lidón Villanueva, Developmental Psychology Department, Universitat Jaume I, Spain

• David P. Farrington, University of Cambridge