The Impact of Drug Possession Decriminalization on Racial Disparities in Arrest: Evidence from Oregon’s Measure 110

• In Event: Informing Policy and Practice: The Influence of Race in Police Work

Abstract

Decriminalizing drug possession is a potential tool to disentangle the racial inequalities caused by drug prohibition. Possession decriminalization had never been implemented in the U.S. except for cannabis. That changed in 2020 when voters in Oregon passed Measure 110 (M-110). This study examines the extent to which M-110 changed racial disparities in arrests. Arrest data are drawn from NIBRS for 2017-2022. Arrest counts are measured monthly for each state, by race, and in some analyses by offense type. Synthetic controls and difference-in-differences designs will be used to evaluate how M-110 affected arrest patterns by race, along with sensitivity analyses to check modeling assumptions. Comparing these results across race, such as looking at how arrest rates changed in absolute and relative terms, will reveal whether M-110 affected racial inequality in arrests. Analyses will be conducted for arrests overall, and by offense type such as for non-cannabis drug possession, drug delivery, violence, and property offenses. The findings of this work-in-progress will reveal the extent to which a notable instance of drug possession decriminalization unraveled racial inequality in arrests – a key form of contact with the criminal legal system.

Authors

• Roland Neil, RAND Corporation

• Beau Kilmer, RAND Corporation

• Kristin Warren, RAND Corporation