Sizing The Illegal Psilocybin Market In The US: Nationally Representative Insights And Some Policy Implications

• In Event: Drug Markets and Drug Policy: Methodological Advances and Theoretical Perspectives

Abstract

Motivation. An increasing number of states and localities are loosening or considering changing their policies about psychedelic substances such as psilocybin. To project the consequences of policy changes, we need better information about use patterns, supply sources, and expenditures. Because detailed information about psilocybin consumption and supply is not collected by existing nationally representative surveys in the U.S., we created our own survey. Data. Our survey was fielded as part of NORC’s AmeriSpeak panel which is representative of the entire U.S. adult population because it leverages the NORC National Frame, an area probability sample used for landmark studies like the General Social Survey. It includes detailed questions about psilocybin prevalence, frequency, product type, supply source, and expenditures. Results. Forthcoming. Data collection ended in January 2024 and analyses will be completed by May 2024. In addition to presenting descriptive statistics which will provide new information about psilocybin use and supply, we will present the first estimates of the US psilocybin market and compare it with what is known about markets for other drugs. Discussion. We will offer thoughts about what these results mean for conducting policy analyses and ideas about how to improve data collection on psilocybin and other psychedelics.

Authors

• Beau Kilmer, RAND Corporation

• Rajeev Ramchand, RAND Corporation

• Ben Senator, Pardee RAND Graduate School

• Michelle Priest, Pardee RAND Graduate School