Modeling the Impacts of Sentencing Reforms on New York Prison Population

• In Event: Policy Evaluation Surrounding Courts and Sentencing

Abstract

The New York state prison population decreased almost 50 percent over the last 15 years. While the prison population has plateaued since April 2021 at around 31,000-32,000 people, key criminal justice stakeholders have been deliberating different policy proposals that may further decrease the prison population. The current study aims to inform policy makers and stakeholders by estimating the impacts of different sentencing reforms and release mechanisms for those serving a prison sentence. First, we will explore changes in prison population between 2014 and 2023 by demographics, charge characteristics, sentencing type, and length of incarceration to understand key drivers of the population change using the individual level administrative data from NYS Department of Correction and Community Supervision. Then, we will estimate decarceral impacts of various policy reform scenarios including 1) retroactive resentencing (e.g., Second Look proposals), 2) removing mandatory minimum prison sentences, 3) removing sentencing enhancements, and 4) adjustments to earned and merit time programs. Lastly, we will explore the impacts of these policy ideas on different racial and ethnic groups to identify reforms that have greater impacts on reducing racial disparities in sentencing decisions and prison populations.

Authors

• Jaeok Kim, Vera Institute of Justice

• Brian King, Vera Institute of Justice

• Emma Delaporte, Vera Institute of Justice

• Christopher Gernon, Vera Institute of Justice