The Leviathan Revisited: How the Homicide Rate of El Salvador Declined by 91% Over Seven Years

• In Event: Comparative and Cross-National Comparisons of Homicide

Abstract

The country of El Salvador has historically struggled with the highest homicide rates in the world. In recent years, however, it has experienced an extraordinary decline in its homicide rates, arguably attributed to the administration of President Nayib Bukele. This study utilizes mixed methods to understand recent homicide trends in the country. First, we conducted a historical review of violence in El Salvador and of the previous solutions attempted. Second, we used a time-series analysis to identify the predictors of homicide trends in El Salvador from 1990 to 2022, with a focus on presidential policies. Findings show that El Salvador's homicide trend has been remarkably volatile and distinct when compared to that of neighboring countries or to the United States. The analysis also shows that homicide rates were already declining steeply before Mr. Bukele took office. Mr. Bukele solidified a downward trend, however--one related to a large increase in the country’s incarceration rate which suppressed an expected homicide increase following the end of a truce with local gangs. El Salvador now has the world’s highest incarceration rate, and uncertainty remains regarding the long-term sustainability of Bukele’s solutions and their implications.

Authors

• Maria Alejandra Ramirez, University of South Florida

• Bressia Michaela Borja, University of South Florida

• Mateus Renno Santos, University of South Florida