Explaining the Decline in Terrorist Attacks in Sri Lanka since 2009

• In Event: Terrorism Targets and Trends Across the Globe

Abstract

The Tamil Tigers were one of the most active and deadliest terrorist organizations of the twentieth century. After their violent elimination by government forces in 2009, the Sri Lankan government struggled to restore political stability, reduce ethnic tensions and stimulate economic growth. Recent research shows that individuals affiliated with the Sinhalese political majority still report much higher trust in government and political institutions than Tamils and other minority groups do. In 2023, Sri Lanka’s Supreme Court ruled that government officials breached public trust in their management of the economy. While there have been a few high-profile attacks in the past ten years, overall the number and lethality of terrorist attacks in Sri Lanka has remained far below the period when the LTTE was active. In this study, we examine why terrorism in Sri Lanka has remained relatively uncommon despite ongoing conditions that would seem to provide favorable conditions for political violence. We look especially at the impact of globalization on Sri Lanka after 2009. We also examine a variety of other potential factors to help explain the rapid reduction in terrorist attacks in Sri Lanka, including crime rates, elections, and demographic changes.

Authors

• Sue-Ming Yang, George Mason University

• Gary LaFree, University of Maryland