Assessing the Relationship Between Unauthorized Immigration, Crime Rates, and Crime Reporting Using a Synthetic Population

• In Event: Neighborhood Research on Immigration, Crime and Policing

Abstract

The relationship between unauthorized immigration and crime is a contentious topic, although research on immigration and crime point to a negative or null relationship. Difficulty in determining documentation status or the potential for crime under-reporting challenges studies that attempt to examine the relationship between legal status and offending. In this study, we use a novel method of estimating the number of unauthorized immigrants in every US census tract and examine the relationship between unauthorized immigration and annual crime rates from 2019-2022 within 10 varied police jurisdictions, including traditional immigration destinations, emerging destinations, and low immigration cities. To assess this relationship, we apply a linear model across census tracts, controlling for known correlates of crime including socioeconomic factors, racial heterogeneity, and housing stability. We find the association between unauthorized immigration and crime rates to be either negative or statistically insignificant across all jurisdictions and crime types, including drug, property, and violent crimes. We also assess the possibility that this relationship may be due to underreporting of crimes in areas which have a high number of unauthorized immigrants, and find that crime reporting biases are not sufficient to explain the negative association. This study then discusses the policy implications for jurisdictions.

Authors

• John Bollenbacher, RTI International

• Christopher Scott Inkpen, RTI International