Defelonizing and Decriminalizing Possession: Estimating the effects of major policy shifts related to drug possession

• In Event: Policy Panel: Measure 110 Research Findings: Assessing the Impacts of Oregon’s Drug Decriminalization Law

Abstract

Oregon is one of 18 states to have defelonized low level possession of controlled substances since 2017 and the only state to have experimented with decriminalization from February 2021 to September 2023. This study examines the impact these two unique drug policy changes have had on both public safety (violent and property crime rates) and public health (overdose death rates) outcomes. We utilize a synthetic control, interrupted time-series analysis of monthly data from 2008 through 2023 to estimate these effects in comparison to other jurisdictions at the state and local level. We estimate the impact of these policy shifts while estimating the effects of COVID-19 and controlling for other related variables such as inflation and drug seizures. The trend data sample is unique in that it examines trends over a total 16-year period (178 months) including 32 months post defelonization and leading up to COVID-19 and 35 months post decriminalization. Results suggest that neither policy shift to downgrade drug possession was associated with increased risk to public safety. Modeling suggests that percent change in inflation, lagged drug seizures, and the type of region (urban versus metro) were important predictors of changes in public safety trends over time.

Authors

• Brian Renauer, Portland State University

• Christopher M. Campbell, Portland State University

• Kelsey Henderson, Portland State University