Assessing the effects of drug decriminalization and trends on prosecution and jail intakes using longitudinal analyses

• In Event: Policy Panel: Measure 110 Research Findings: Assessing the Impacts of Oregon’s Drug Decriminalization Law

Abstract

A lingering concern among opponents of Oregon’s decriminalization (Measure 110) was that without the ability to arrest for possession for a controlled substance (PCS), law enforcement and prosecutors would lose their ability to investigate and prosecute other “drug nexus” crimes (e.g., theft). Advocates of the measure argue that decimalization would reduce convictions and time in custody for many people who would otherwise be negatively impacted by the justice system. Using administrative data from January 2008–December 2023 on arrests, prosecutions, and jail admissions along with several economic indicators (e.g., inflation), we examined the impact of sequential policy shifts on system outcomes of charges filed and admissions to jail. Interrupted time-series analyses and mixed-effects models examining the nested nature of counties in the state all suggest that M110 was associated with a nullifying effect of PCS charges and jail admissions. Models suggest PCS decriminalization may have suppressed overall charging and custody trends while most other criminal charges and admissions returned to pre-COVID levels. Current models suggest that the drop in arrests for drug possession may have translated into fewer overall charges and jail admissions in the three years following decriminalization.

Authors

• Christopher M. Campbell, Portland State University

• Brian Renauer, Portland State University

• Kelsey Henderson, Portland State University