Convictions and Recidivism: The Evolving Role of Old Criminal Records on Modern Policy

• In Event: Background Checks and Life after Conviction

Abstract

Individuals with a criminal record often face difficulties obtaining employment or housing as well as other social stigma and consequences due to their criminal record. Several studies were conducted in the early 2000s that looked at the power of an old criminal record to predict future behavior. However, these studies focused mainly on time since an arrest, while most policies that have been developed since this time focus only on convictions and not arrest (e.g. EEOC guidelines). In this research we seek to update and improve upon this prior research using twenty years of data from the Pennsylvania Commission on Sentencing that follows individuals from a conviction to a new conviction, controlling for multiple aspects of the prior record of the individual and type and seriousness of the crime. We utilize hazard rate modeling to determine how many years of being crime-free it takes for someone with a criminal conviction to have approximately the same risk of offending as someone with no prior conviction, and also address spells of incarceration. The results from this study have important implications for our understanding of recidivism risks among individuals with a prior record and policies regarding the use of criminal background checks.

Authors

• Ryan Bowman, Pennsylvania State University

• Megan Kurlychek, Pennsylvania State University