System Pathways and Recidivism: How Does the Timing of System-Involvement Predict Risk?

• In Event: The Role of the Juvenile Justice System in Youth Outcomes

Abstract

Many youth involved in the juvenile legal system (JLS) have diagnosable mental health needs and experience child welfare and special education, but most research has not examined their confluence and related needs. Using longitudinal, multi-source data, this study asks: How does the timing of various system involvement predict JLS involvement? A survival analysis with a continuation ratio approach modeled recidivism examining youth’s child welfare reports for child maltreatment, identification for emotional disturbance (ED), and mental health diagnoses during four JLS petitions.

Results indicated pathways varied by race and gender. Black youth had increased risk of JLS involvement and the odds of avoiding JLS involvement favored White youth. Neighborhood poverty, receiving public assistance, and being in foster care, increased risk for petitions more for females than males. History of sexual abuse strongly influenced females’ later petitions. For some petitions, a depression diagnosis increased risk for females, yet males risk decreased with an ‘other mental health diagnosis’. ED increased risk of initial petitions for all youth and remained significant for males’ later petitions. The time before the first petition was most crucial, thus; understanding the relationship between systems and needs can inform how systems can be more collaborative and responsive.

Authors

• Madeline Young Lee, California State University, San Marcos

• Dylan Jones, Washington University in St. Louis

• Henrika McCoy, University of Denver

• Melissa Jonson-Reid, Washington University in St. Louis